Analysis With the election less than a year away, Donald Trump is actively campaigning in early primary states. Polls fluctuate, showing a tight race between Trump and President Joe Biden, often within the margin of error.

However, legal expert Norm Eisen, pollster Celinda Lake, and campaign researcher Anat Shenker-Osorio, in a New York Times article, highlight a crucial factor often overlooked in polls: the impact of a potential conviction on Trump’s support. Polls consistently indicate that a conviction would significantly harm his chances.

In a recent article by Raw Story, Special Counsel Jack Smith’s federal prosecution of Trump over the 2020 election is slated for completion before Election Day. Originally set for trial on March 4, 2024, it’s now pending appellate review, with the Supreme Court expected to fast-track the case.

Additionally, Trump faces three other criminal trials in 2024, raising the possibility of a conviction before November 2024.

The authors note that while it’s early for election polling, the consistent trend in numerous surveys is the negative impact of a conviction on Trump’s support. For example, a Wall Street Journal poll shows Trump leading Biden by four points, but a conviction leads to a five-point swing in Biden’s favor. Similarly, other polls like Yahoo News-YouGov and a New York Times-Siena College poll reflect substantial swings against Trump in the event of a conviction.

This analysis comes even as Trump’s campaign is vigorously active in several states, while Biden’s campaign is just starting to form. The implication is clear: a conviction could be a decisive factor in the 2024 election, potentially overturning any current polling advantage Trump enjoys.



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